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More than 90 million people could be forced into “extreme deprivation” this year as developing and emerging economies are hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the world’s lender of last resort predicts the pandemic will undo decades of progress in reducing global inequality and poverty, leaving the poorest nations worst affected.

The report forecasts a global contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) of -4.4% in 2020, slightly more positive than its last forecast in June, followed by a recovery of 5.2% in 2021, leaving global output smaller than it was pre-pandemic in 2019.

Track the economy’s recovery from lockdown

The IMF sees the UK economy shrinking by 9.8% in 2020, implying further retraction this year after the latest GDP figures for August showed the economy was still 9.2% smaller than in February.
While the IMF says the negative economic impact of COVID-19 has been truly global with no nation spared, it makes clear more than 150 nations it does not classify as advanced economies will be worst affected.

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The growth in per-capita income for emerging and developing economies will be lower than in advanced economies, with women, the young and the low-paid suffering most.

“The poor are getting poorer with close to 90 million people expected to fall into extreme deprivation this year. The ascent out of this calamity is likely to be long, uneven, and highly uncertain,” said Gita Gopinath, the IMF chief economist.

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The report also examined the impact of lockdown measures around the world, concluding that while they were effective in reducing infection rates, removing them will not trigger recovery as long as consumers practice “voluntary social distancing” because of their fear of infection.

Image: Gita Gopinath is the IMF chief economist

Where jobs have been lost in the UK

The IMF says lockdowns “may pave the way to a faster economic recovery” if they contain the epidemic and thus limit the extent of voluntary social distancing.
With this in mind, it urges governments around the world to continue funding economic support and stimulus packages, such as the furlough scheme in the UK, which will be replaced by a less generous Job Support Scheme at the end of October.
The report also praises governments for launching extraordinary economic interventions, crediting them with “preventing a recurrence of the financial catastrophe of 2008-09.”
But huge uncertainty remains, and the economic outlook is indivisible from the progress of the pandemic and the search for a vaccine.

How close are we to a COVID-19 vaccine?

“There remains tremendous uncertainty around the outlook with both downside and upside risks,” said Ms Gopinath.
“The virus is resurging with localised lockdowns being re-instituted. If this worsens and prospects for treatments and vaccines deteriorate, the toll on economic activity would be severe, and likely amplified by severe financial market turmoil.
“Growing restrictions on trade and investment and rising geopolitical uncertainty could harm the recovery.
“On the upside, faster and more widespread availability of tests, treatments, vaccines, and additional policy stimulus can significantly improve outcomes.”

Advertisements for three private coronavirus test centres have been banned after they claimed they could show whether someone was immune to coronavirus.
Corona Test Centre London, London Vaccination Clinic and Solihull Health Check Clinic in the West Midlands all claimed a positive antibody test result would guarantee COVID-19 immunity.

Complaints were made to the Advertising Standards Agency (ASA), which ruled all three were “misleading” and their adverts should be removed from their websites and social media platforms.
The paid-for Facebook advert for Corona Test Centre London, which appeared in May, featured a picture of a socially-distanced group of people wearing overalls and face masks and the message: “We are on a mission to safely get you back to your friends and back to work.”
X Medical Ltd, who owns the centre, was charging £120 for antigen tests and between £165 and £175 for “fit to fly” and PCR tests.

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Image: Corona Test Centre London is one of three companies who have had ads banned
The watchdog said it considered that the advert would be interpreted by readers to mean the tests “were capable of indicating whether or not someone could safely return to work and to social gatherings without fear of contracting or passing on the virus”.

It ruled the ads misleading after it found no information in either which explained that a positive antibody result did not mean that a person was immune.

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What are the different type of COVID tests?

Solihull Health Check Clinic’s ad was banned for claiming their antibody test results were “100% accurate” and “Public Health England and government approved”.
The advert, as seen on 2 July, offered test results within 24 hours and said positive ones would indicate a “coronavirus immune response”.
The ASA found the ad to be misleading on all three counts.
The other ad to be banned was for a travel vaccination clinic in London run by 360 Health Ltd.

Image: The London Vaccination Clinic ad from May suggested a positive result would mean you could return to life as normal
An advert from 27 May offered a blood test that within two days could tell “whether you have potential antibodies (immunity) to COVID-19” and was targeted at people “thinking about getting back to work”.
It mentioned two tests – one that “detects IgG antibodies (long-term immunity) – and another rapid on-the-spot test which “detects IgM and IgG antibodies, “recent infection and longer-term immunity”.
The firm said it did not believe customers found their advert to be misleading and had not received any other complaints.

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In its ruling on Wednesday, the ASA noted that as of 13 July, government guidance said that there was no strong evidence yet to suggest those who had been proven to have had the virus, and to have produced antibodies, were immune.
It comes after a man in Nevada was confirmed to have contracted the virus twice – first on 18 April and for a second time on 5 June.

Four ferry companies have been given contracts from the government worth more than £70m to provide freight capacity after Brexit.
The Department for Transport has signed deals with Brittany Ferries, DFDS, P&O Ferries and Stena Line totalling £77.6m.

It said the agreements will ensure that vital medical supplies and other critical goods “continue to be smoothly delivered into the UK whatever the outcome of negotiations with the EU”.

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Brexit talks in deep water over fishing quota

The contracts will be in place for six months from the end of the transition period on 31 December.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said: “As the transition period comes to an end, we are putting the necessary measures in place to safeguard the smooth and successful flow of freight.

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“Securing these contracts ensures that irrespective of the outcome of the negotiations, life-saving medical supplies and other critical goods can continue to enter the UK from the moment we leave the EU.”

The issue of post-Brexit freight capacity has proved controversial in the past.

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Mr Shapps’ predecessor Chris Grayling came under pressure to resign after giving a contract worth £14m to Seaborne Freight, despite the fact that the firm had no ships.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of the Best for Britain campaign group, said: “Given the government’s last ferry contracts ended in a court battle, many will rightly question whether this is the best way to ensure vital medical supplies and other critical goods can be smoothly delivered to the UK after the transition period ends.
“Supply chains are already experiencing unprecedented levels of disruption due to COVID and a no-deal Brexit could create huge new logistical problems for medicine suppliers and those relying on them, particularly given how late these arrangements have been made.”

Image: Chris Grayling came under pressure to resign after giving a contract worth £14m to a firm that had no ships
According to the DfT, the deals secure freight capacity on nine routes serving eight English ports “in areas less likely to experience disruption”: Felixstowe, Harwich, Hull, Newhaven, Poole, Portsmouth, Teesport and Tilbury.
The government used its freight capacity framework to award the contracts, which entails a shortlist of “experienced freight operators” submitting bids.
Should the capacity not be needed, the DfT said the termination costs would “reflect a fraction of the full contract amount”.

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With the end of the Brexit transition period looming, there are fears of delays to cross-Channel trade at major ports like Dover and Folkestone in 2021.
The government says it “continues to work with key local stakeholders and industry to prepare for the end of the transition period”.

Superstar K-pop group BTS are facing backlash in China over comments made about the Korean War.
The leader of the band, known as RM, caused controversy after he said South Korea and the US share a “history of pain” over the 1950-53 conflict, in which the two countries fought together.

His comments caused anger as China backed North Korea during the war – and may have also impacted the band’s advertising deals.

Image: BTS are global superstars
BTS have featured in adverts for brands including Samsung, Fila and Hyundai – these have all now disappeared from various Chinese websites and social media platforms, but it is unclear who removed the posts.
Special edition BTS smartphones and earphones, produced by South Korean tech giant Samsung, have also been removed from Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Tmall and JD.com.

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RM’s comment was made during a speech after the band accepted an award for their contribution to US-South Korea relations.

He said: “We will always remember the history of pain that our two nations shared together and the sacrifices of countless men and women.”

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K-pop has a large following in China, and BTS have around five million fans on Weibo – a popular social media platform in the country.
One user on Weibo commented: “They [BTS] should not make any money from China,” adding “If you want to make money from Chinese fans you have to consider Chinese feelings.”

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According to the Global Times, a state-run newspaper in China, “Chinese netizens said the band’s totally one-sided attitude to the Korean War hurts their feelings and negates history”.
It went on to add that the comment was made to “play up” to US audiences.
During the Korean War, around 200,000 South Korean soldiers and 36,000 American soldiers died. Chinese state media reports 180,000 Chinese soldiers also died.

Shoppers have increased their purchases of alcohol, toilet rolls and flour as tighter coronavirus restrictions loom and the 10pm pub curfew kicks in, according to industry data.
Figures from Kantar showed consumers spent £261m more on alcohol to drink at home – compared to last year – in September, a period that also came after the end of the Eat Out To Help Out discount scheme.

The report also said the seven days from 21 to 27 September saw 107 million trips to supermarkets, the busiest period since March.

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Oldham locals adjust to pub curfew

Sales of toilet roll climbed by 64% and flour by 73% during the week, though Kantar said it represented only “limited evidence” of stockpiling.
The number of shopping visits was well below the 175 million seen just prior to the initial lockdown earlier this year.

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Kantar’s figures also showed take-home grocery sales were up 10.6% in the four weeks to 4 October compared to the same period last year.

The surge in online sales during the pandemic also continued – with growth of 76%, including a 41.9% rise for Ocado, boosted by its new tie-up with Marks & Spencer.

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Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, said: “Shoppers are moving a greater proportion of their eating and drinking back into the home.
“This is likely a response to rising Covid-19 infection rates, greater restrictions on opening hours in the hospitality sector, and the end of the Government’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme.”

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Tesco: COVID panic buying ‘unnecessary’

Details of the spike in supermarket visits come after outgoing Tesco boss Dave Lewis recently urged customers not to stockpile goods.
Tesco and Morrisons introduced restrictions on key products for the first time since the spring – when panic-buying had left shelves in many stores empty.

Unemployment rose to a three-year high over the summer and there were more redundancies than any time since 2009, official figures show.
The jobless rate climbed to a larger than expected 4.5% in the three months to August, up from 4.1% a month before, as the coronavirus crisis took a further toll on livelihoods.

That was the highest since April 2017 while the total number of unemployed climbed by 138,000 to 1.52 million – also the highest since early 2017 – according to the Office for National Statistics.

Where jobs are being lost across the UK economy

There were 227,000 redundancies in the period, the highest level since the financial crisis in 2009 and twice as many as in the same three months of last year.
The ONS figures showed the number of people in employment fell by 153,000 in the three months to August, much more than the 30,000 forecast by economists.

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Data also suggested that, last month, there were 673,000 fewer people on UK payrolls than in March when the coronavirus lockdown started – though the number rose by 20,000 in September itself.

The payroll figures painted a picture of nearly half a million fewer people in work plus almost 200,000 who “said they were employed but were currently not working nor earning any money”, said Jonathan Athow, ONS deputy national statistician for economic statistics.

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Mr Athow added: “Since the start of the pandemic there has been a sharp increase in those out of work and job hunting but more people telling us they are not actively looking for work.
“There has also been a stark rise in the number of people who have recently been made redundant.”

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Chancellor: ‘I know people are frustrated’

The figures come ahead of the end later this month of the government’s furlough scheme, which has been subsidising pay for temporarily laid-off workers during the pandemic.
It will be replaced by separate initiatives – one paying two thirds of wages of workers at businesses forced to close by restrictions and another topping up pay by a smaller amount for employees working reduced hours.
Responding to the jobs figures, Chancellor Rishi Sunak said: “I’ve been honest with people from the start that we would unfortunately not be able to save every job.
“But these aren’t just statistics, they are people’s lives.
“That’s why trying to protect as many jobs as possible and to helping those who lose their job back into employment, is my absolute priority.”
Laith Khalaf, financial analyst at AJ Bell, said: “Unemployment isn’t high by historical standards, but the picture is clearly deteriorating.
“We’re beginning to see what the economic wound looks like as the bandage of furlough is gradually removed.”

Track the economy’s recovery from lockdown

The Bank of England has forecast that unemployment will hit 7.5% by the end of the year and earlier this week governor Andrew Bailey reiterated his warning that the economy could prove even weaker.
ONS figures last week showed GDP grew by just 2.1% in August, a slowdown in the pace of recovery from the coronavirus recession that left it still 9.2% below pre-pandemic levels – even before tougher restrictions began to come into force across much of the country.
Sky News has been tracking the impact of job losses across the economy, with aviation and retail sectors so far the main focus and hospitality workers also feeling an increasing impact.
TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady said: “We are on the precipice of an unemployment crisis.
“Ministers must act now to protect and create jobs.
“The expansion of the job support scheme is a step in the right direction, but it still falls short.”

Taxes may have to rise by £40bn – just to prevent government borrowing “spiralling upwards”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The think-tank’s so-called green budget, a survey of the UK economy and public finances, warns that weaker tax revenues as a result of the COVID-19 crisis will combine with record levels of peacetime borrowing to place a huge strain on the Treasury in the years ahead.

The IFS study pointed to a central scenario that the public purse faced a revenue shortfall of at least £100bn in four years’ time because the economy is on course to be 5% smaller than its pre-crisis level.

Where jobs have been lost in the UK

“Even a government content to keep debt constant at 100% of national income, and borrowing at around £80bn a year, would, under our central scenario, require a fiscal tightening (tax rise and/or spending cuts) worth around 2% of national income in 2024 – over £40bn in today’s terms,” the report said.
The figures, the IFS cautioned, did not account for any additional spending likely to still be needed at that time that would ramp up pressure to borrow.

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The report warned that now was not the time for the chancellor, who has already called off his autumn budget, to be considering tax increases given the extent of the damage to employment and wider Treasury income.

Rishi Sunak said last week that the government had a “sacred responsibility” to future generations to rebuild the public finances.

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IFS director Paul Johnson responded: “For now, with borrowing costs extremely low, Mr Sunak shouldn’t worry unduly about the debt being accrued as a result. It is necessary.

Track the economy’s recovery from lockdown

“Unfortunately, none of this will be enough fully to protect the economy into the medium run. Without action, debt – already at its highest level in more than half a century – would carry on rising.
“Tax rises, and big ones, look all but inevitable, though likely not until the middle years of this decade.”
The green budget also calculated that the prospect of the UK’s Brexit transition period ending without a trade deal could leave the economy a further 3% smaller.
“The majority of the economic costs associated with Brexit still lie ahead, and are likely to be felt quite quickly and sharply after the transition period ends.
“These effects will likely hit employment, as well as investment, the report said.”

Receiving an unexpected knock on the front door in the early hours of the morning does not usually bring good news – but it is how one man found out he had won a Nobel Prize. 
Economist Paul Milgrom won the prize for economics, alongside his colleague Robert Wilson.

But the prize’s organisers had been unable to reach Mr Milgrom, so Mr Wilson took it upon himself to let his colleague know about their win.
“You know, I was asleep and my phone is set not to take calls from unknown numbers,” Mr Milgrom said. “So, they never got through to me.
“But there came to be a knock at my door and my co-winner, Bob Wilson, who also lives across the street, came over and was knocking at my door and saying, ‘Paul, wake up! You’ve won the Nobel Prize!'”

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Mr Milgrom stammered for a moment before saying: “Wow.”

Security footage at Mr Milgrom’s home captured the moment he found out in the early hours of the morning.

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Both men are based at Stanford University in the US and won for improving the theory of how auctions work and inventing new and better formats that are now woven into the economy.
Their work has been used to sell radio frequencies, fishing quotas and airport landing slots.
Mr Milgrom remained humble about his win.
“This is economics. It’s not the Nobel Peace Prize or something, it’s not like I’ve gone out there and helped people settle a war,” he said.

Nobel Peace Prize: World Food Programme named this year’s winner

Their win was announced in Stockholm by Goran Hansson, secretary-general of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, rounding off a week of Nobel Prizes.
The committee said their work showed “why rational bidders tend to place bids below their own best estimate of the common value,” that is, “the value which is uncertain beforehand but, in the end, is the same for everyone”.
It also featured an explanation of how bidders try to avoid the so-called “winner’s curse” of overpaying.

Downing Street has taken down a government-backed advert, described by the culture secretary as “crass”, after it suggested a ballet dancer could “reboot” her career by retraining in cyber security.
Part of the government’s Cyber First campaign, the ad shows a young woman tying up her ballet shoes alongside the caption “Fatima’s next job could be in cyber. (she just doesn’t know it yet)” and the slogan “Rethink. Reskill. Reboot.”

The poster – one of several which features people from a variety of other professions – has been heavily criticised on social media, with acclaimed choreographer Sir Matthew Bourne tweeting: “This has to be a joke? Right?”

Number 10 has said the ad was part of a long-running campaign, but admitted that its timing was “not acceptable”.
The prime minister’s official spokesman said: “This is part of a campaign encouraging people from all walks of life to think about a career in cyber security.

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“But this particular piece of content was not appropriate and has been removed from the campaign.

“The government recognises the challenge to the cultural industry and today the culture secretary has announced £257m of funding to help support 1,385 theatres, art venues, museums and cultural organisations across England.”

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Author Caitlin Moran also criticised the ad, tweeting: “I don’t know if the government know they appear to have recently created a ‘Hopes & Dreams Crushing Department’, but for a country already depressed and anxious, I would suggest it’s a bit of a ‘Not now, dudes’ moment?”
Shadow mental health minister Dr Rosena Allin-Khan posted: “Fatima, you be you. Don’t let anyone else tell you that you aren’t good enough because you don’t conform to their preconceived social norms.”

Where jobs have been lost in the UK economy

Image: Rishi Sunak has insisted he was talking generally about the need for some workers to ‘adapt’
It comes after the chancellor denied encouraging workers in the struggling arts industry to retrain.
Rishi Sunak has insisted he was talking generally about the need for some workers to “adapt” and suggested there would be “fresh and new opportunities” available for those who could not do their old jobs.
Responding to the backlash over the poster, Culture Secretary Oliver Dowden said it did not come from his department.

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He tweeted: “I agree it was crass. This was a partner campaign encouraging people from all walks of life to think about a career in cyber security.
“I want to save jobs in the arts which is why we are investing £1.57bn.”
According to Arts Council England, the arts and culture industry contributes more than £10bn a year to the UK economy, with £3 spent on food, drink, accommodation and travel for every £1 spent on theatre tickets.

In Boulogne, the waves are pounding into the sea wall with an intimidating ferocity. France’s busiest fishing port is a place that has long been accustomed to the whims of nature, but it is political uncertainty that troubles them here now.
For generations, boats have left this port to fish in the waters between France and England. Look across the water from Boulogne on a clear day and you can see Dover.

Image: The waves pound into the sea wall in Boulogne-sur-Mer
Today, as I look beyond the battered sea wall, I can make out the white cliffs in the far distance.
Viewed from here, the Channel has always seemed like a pretty generous bit of water for these fishermen. But now, as the waves become bigger, so the Channel looks more ferocious and unwelcoming.
It is just two and a half months until the end of the year, and the close of Britain’s transition period. If a Brexit trade deal has not been agreed by that point, Boulogne’s fishermen may face a truly profound change to their lives.

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Even if there is a deal, access to British coastal waters may be curtailed. If the UK leaves without an agreement, then the impact would probably be felt much more severely.

Various fishermen in this town told me that they thought their businesses would no longer be viable; that careers would be brought to an end.

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The flip side to this, of course, is the UK taking back control of its coastal waters, a theme that has resonated from the very start of the Brexit process. For some, that sort of idea is the very synthesis of the concept of sovereignty.

Image: Boulogne-sur-Mer is France’s busiest fishing port
There is a reason why fishing has become so central to Brexit negotiations. The waters around Britain teem with seafood.
Some of it, like cod, is beloved by the British. Others, like the abundant sea snails or herring, are popular in France but barely tasted in Britain.
It leads to curious imbalances – the vast majority of cod from the Channel is caught by French boats, with some of it then sold back to the Brits. The flip side, is that the UK’s fishermen sell plenty of their haul to continental consumers.
At the moment, all of that is not just legal, but normal. But come 1 January, and new rules will be in place.
It is just that, so far, we do not know what those rules will be.
I spoke to many fishermen in this town, and did not find one who was confident that a Brexit deal would be done by the end of the year. There was nervousness, and among the fishermen I spoke to, a distinct lack of bravado.
When I was last in Boulogne, a few months ago, there was an air of machismo, talk of staging a blockade or simply ignoring any new restrictions. Now that mood seems to have gone.
We meet Gaetan Deslart, unloading his full haul of crabs. He has spent his life going in and out of British waters but says he would not risk breaking new regulations.
He said: “The sanctions will be so big and dangerous that we’re not going to take the risk of losing our boats by going into Brit waters or having enormous fines.”
“If it’s not allowed, we’ll respect it and we’ll come back to French waters. But if we have to do that, and all share these waters, we’ll be dead in the year.”
The EU wants to keep something like the status quo, with very irregular bouts of renegotiation. The UK wants to impose far greater restrictions, and annual quotas. The two sides remain a long, long way apart.
From an economic perspective, fishing is fairly trivial – a financial pin-prick compared to financial services or car-making. But it is symbolic to many of the concept of sovereignty. And when I say many, I do not just mean the British.

Image: Some fishermen in Boulogne are worried about Brexit
French President Emmanuel Macron is loath to sign up to any deal that curtails the reach of his fishing fleet.
The fishing lobby is politically powerful and, still wary of the Gilets Jaunes protests that have marked his presidency, he wants to show his support for French workers. What better way than to flex his muscles over fishing?
There are seven other nations in the European Union whose boats range into British waters – Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Spain.
Most would not block a Brexit deal solely on the basis of fishing rights. France would consider it, though. And today, we discovered that the Spanish government will also come under pressure from their workers.
Jose Basilio Otero, President of Federation of Fishermen’s Guilds in Spain, told me that he was worried about the future of Spanish fisherman, boats and fish stocks.
His hope is, like many across Europe, for things to just carry on as they are.

Image: Jose Basilio Otero, president of Federation of Fishermen’s Guilds, Spain
“What we want is easy – that is to continue as we have been up to now”, he said.
“We need English waters and England needs to export the fish to Europe, so we should make a policy of not hurting ourselves and continue with the status quo that we have right now.”
But if he does not have it, he and his members will appeal to the government “to put a veto” on any deal that ends their access to their traditional fishing grounds.
In France, Spain and in the Netherlands, I spoke to fishermen and heard the same things – a frustration with the political process, a lack of resentment towards British fishermen, and, to quote one of Brexit’s greatest hits, a sense that no-deal would be better than a bad deal.
Where does this leave Brexit? With a problem.
For a long time, talks about fishing have been like the seagull I watched flying through the howling Boulogne wind – lots of effort, but almost no progress.

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Now, time is running out. A deal will not be achieved this week, and probably not even this month.
But if it is to be in place by the end of the year, then compromise, acceptable to Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron, various other leaders, the European Council and the European Parliament, will have to come. And it will have to come soon.
Possible? Yes. Easy? No.